Dr Anton Pak is a Senior Research Fellow in the Centre for the Business and Economics of Health, The University of Queensland. Anton is an applied economist by training and his research interests focus on the behaviour of patients and their choices, utilisation of emergency department services, waiting time modelling, and the economics of digital health. Anton examines empirical questions by utilising health economics theory and concepts and by analysing large panel and cross-sectional datasets (including linked data) using classical econometrics techniques, as well as machine learning methods.
Anton is currently co-leading an Emergency Medicine Foundation funded project “ED waiting time predictions in real-time: development of data acquisition system and performance evaluation of advanced statistical models.”, which is being undertaken in partnership with Princess Alexandra Hospital. Anton has worked extensively on interdisciplinary research with statisticians, mathematical modellers, clinicians, epidemiologists, and public health experts.
Prior to joining the Centre, Anton worked as a Research Fellow in Applied Economics and Data Scientist at James Cook University. His previous experience also includes working as a management consultant and university lecturer.
Anton has a PhD (Economics) from The University of Queensland.
Conference Publication: Forecasting emergency department waiting times using deep neural networks
Pak, A. and Trinh, K. (2023). Forecasting emergency department waiting times using deep neural networks. ISPOR Europe 2023, Copenhagen, Denmark, 11-15 November 2023. New York, United States: Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.jval.2023.09.051
Conference Publication: The impact of co-locating GP-led minor injury clinic on pediatric emergency department
Pak, A. (2023). The impact of co-locating GP-led minor injury clinic on pediatric emergency department. ISPOR Europe 2023, Copenhagen, Denmark, 11-15 November 2023. New York, United States: Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.jval.2023.09.1565
Journal Article: A narrative review of health status and healthcare delivery in the oil and gas industry: impacts on employees, employers, and local communities
Fox, Jordan L., Gurney, Tiana, Kondalsamy-Chennakesavan, Srinivas, Pols, Thomas A. H., Tuffaha, Haitham, Pak, Anton and McGrail, Matthew (2023). A narrative review of health status and healthcare delivery in the oil and gas industry: impacts on employees, employers, and local communities. Healthcare, 11 (21) 2888, 1-17. doi: 10.3390/healthcare11212888
(2024–2025) CSIRO
(2023–2024) Global Snakebite Initiative USA Foundation
(2023) UQ Health Care Limited
AI to reduce hospital emergency department overcrowding.
Doctor Philosophy
Statistical approaches to infectious diseases modelling in developing countries: a case of COVID-19
Gayawan, Ezra, Adekunle, Adeshina I., Adegboye, Oyelola A. and Pak, Anton (2022). Statistical approaches to infectious diseases modelling in developing countries: a case of COVID-19. Promoting statistical practice and collaboration in developing countries. (pp. 557-581) edited by O. Olawale Awe, Kim Love and Eric A. Vance. New York, NY, United States: Chapman and Hall/CRC. doi: 10.1201/9781003261148-45
Fox, Jordan L., Gurney, Tiana, Kondalsamy-Chennakesavan, Srinivas, Pols, Thomas A. H., Tuffaha, Haitham, Pak, Anton and McGrail, Matthew (2023). A narrative review of health status and healthcare delivery in the oil and gas industry: impacts on employees, employers, and local communities. Healthcare, 11 (21) 2888, 1-17. doi: 10.3390/healthcare11212888
GBD 2019 IMID Collaborators, Moni, Mohammad Ali, Moniruzzaman, Md and Pak, Anton (2023). Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019. EClinicalMedicine, 64 102193, 102193. doi: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102193
Forecasting emergency department waiting time using a state space representation
Trinh, Kelly, Staib, Andrew and Pak, Anton (2023). Forecasting emergency department waiting time using a state space representation. Statistics in Medicine, 42 (24), 1-26. doi: 10.1002/sim.9870
Mason, Suzanne, Wakai, Abel and Pak, Anton (2023). Who cares about the money: do health economic evaluation studies published in emergency medicine journals cut the mustard?. CJEM: Canadian journal of emergency medicine, 25 (8), 647-648. doi: 10.1007/s43678-023-00562-7
Editorial: Environmental stressors, multi-hazards and their impact on health
Adegboye, Oyelola A., Alele, Faith O., Castellanos, Maru E., Pak, Anton and Emeto, Theophilus I. (2023). Editorial: Environmental stressors, multi-hazards and their impact on health. Frontiers in Public Health, 11 1231955, 1-4. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1231955
A resurgence and re-emergence of diphtheria in Nigeria, 2023
Adegboye, Oyelola A., Alele, Faith O., Pak, Anton, Castellanos, Maria E., Abdullahi, Mohammed A. S., Okeke, Malachy I., Emeto, Theophilus I. and McBryde, Emma S. (2023). A resurgence and re-emergence of diphtheria in Nigeria, 2023. Therapeutic Advances in Infectious Disease, 10, 1-4. doi: 10.1177/20499361231161936
Gwaka, Joseph K., Demafo, Marcy A., N’konzi, Joel-Pascal N., Pak, Anton, Olumoh, Jamiu, Elfaki, Faiz and Adegboye, Oyelola A. (2023). Machine-learning approach for risk estimation and risk prediction of the effect of climate on bovine respiratory disease. Mathematics, 11 (6) 1354, 1354. doi: 10.3390/math11061354
Travel-Related Monkeypox Outbreaks in the Era of COVID-19 Pandemic: Are We Prepared?
Adegboye, Oyelola A., Eugenia Castellanos, Maria, Alele, Faith O., Pak, Anton, Ezechukwu, Henry C., Hou, Kay and Emeto, Theophilus I. (2022). Travel-Related Monkeypox Outbreaks in the Era of COVID-19 Pandemic: Are We Prepared?. Viruses, 14 (6) 1283, 1283. doi: 10.3390/v14061283
The effect of neighbourhood and spatial crime rates on mental wellbeing
Pak, Anton and Gannon, Brenda (2022). The effect of neighbourhood and spatial crime rates on mental wellbeing. Empirical Economics, 64 (1), 1-36. doi: 10.1007/s00181-022-02256-y
Are we better-off? The benefits and costs of Australian COVID-19 lockdown
Pak, Anton, Adegboye, Oyelola A. and McBryde, Emma S. (2021). Are we better-off? The benefits and costs of Australian COVID-19 lockdown. Frontiers in Public Health, 9 798478, 798478. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.798478
Hospitalisations related to lower respiratory tract infections in Northern Queensland
Pak, Anton, Adegboye, Oyelola A., Eisen, Damon P. and McBryde, Emma S. (2021). Hospitalisations related to lower respiratory tract infections in Northern Queensland. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 45 (5), 430-436. doi: 10.1111/1753-6405.13104
The importance of structural factors in COVID-19 response in Western Pacific
Pak, Anton and Adegboye, Oyelola A. (2021). The importance of structural factors in COVID-19 response in Western Pacific. Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health, 33 (8), 101053952110359-978. doi: 10.1177/10105395211035932
Pak, A., Eisen, D. P., McBryde, E. S. and Adegboye, O. A. (2021). Hospitalisation for lower respiratory tract infection is associated with an increased incidence of acute myocardial infarction and stroke in tropical Northern Australia. Scientific Reports, 11 (1) 6826. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-86301-3
Adegboye, Oyelola A., Adekunle, Adeshina, Pak, Anton, Gayawan, Ezra, Leung, Denis H. Y., Rojas, Diana P., Elfaki, Faiz, McBryde, Emma S. and Eisen, Damon P. (2021). Change in outbreak epicentre and its impact on the importation risks of COVID-19 progression: a modelling study. Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, 40 101988, 101988. doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2021.101988
Do access, quality and cost of general practice affect emergency department use?
Pak, Anton and Gannon, Brenda (2021). Do access, quality and cost of general practice affect emergency department use?. Health Policy, 125 (4), 504-511. doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.01.003
Pak, Anton, McBryde, Emma and Adegboye, Oyelola A. (2021). Does high public trust amplify compliance with stringent COVID-19 government health guidelines? A multi-country analysis using data from 102,627 individuals. Risk Management and Healthcare Policy, 14, 293-302. doi: 10.2147/rmhp.s278774
Predicting waiting time to treatment for emergency department patients
Pak, Anton, Gannon, Brenda and Staib, Andrew (2021). Predicting waiting time to treatment for emergency department patients. International Journal of Medical Informatics, 145 104303, 1-8. doi: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2020.104303
Role of modelling in COVID-19 policy development
McBryde, Emma S., Meehan, Michael T., Adegboye, Oyelola A., Adekunle, Adeshina, Caldwell, Jamie M., Pak, Anton, Rojas, Diana P., Williams, Bridget M. and Trauer, James M. (2020). Role of modelling in COVID-19 policy development. Paediatric Respiratory Reviews, 35, 57-60. doi: 10.1016/j.prrv.2020.06.013
Economic consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak: the need for epidemic preparedness
Pak, Anton, Adegboye, Oyelola A., Adekunle, Adeshina I., Rahman, Kazi M., McBryde, Emma S. and Eisen, Damon P. (2020). Economic consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak: the need for epidemic preparedness. Frontiers in Public Health, 8 241. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00241
Neo-patrimonialism and corruption: evidence from 8,436 firms in 17 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa
Araral, Eduardo, Pak, Anton, Pelizzo, Riccardo and Wu, Xun (2019). Neo-patrimonialism and corruption: evidence from 8,436 firms in 17 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Public Administration Review, 79 (4), 580-590. doi: 10.1111/puar.13023
Pak, Anton (2017). Predicting crude oil prices: Replication of the empirical results in "What do we learn from the price of crude oil?". Journal of Applied Econometrics, 33 (1), 160-163. doi: 10.1002/jae.2584
Determinants of bribery: theory and evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
Pelizzo, Riccardo, Araral, Eduardo, Pak, Anton and Xun, Wu (2016). Determinants of bribery: theory and evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. African Development Review, 28 (2), 229-240. doi: 10.1111/1467-8268.12192
Forecasting emergency department waiting times using deep neural networks
Pak, A. and Trinh, K. (2023). Forecasting emergency department waiting times using deep neural networks. ISPOR Europe 2023, Copenhagen, Denmark, 11-15 November 2023. New York, United States: Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.jval.2023.09.051
The impact of co-locating GP-led minor injury clinic on pediatric emergency department
Pak, A. (2023). The impact of co-locating GP-led minor injury clinic on pediatric emergency department. ISPOR Europe 2023, Copenhagen, Denmark, 11-15 November 2023. New York, United States: Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.jval.2023.09.1565
Howie, Peter and Pak, Anton (2015). Reducing fossil-fuel subsidies and the implication on inequality and poverty in Kazakhstan: a first estimate. 38th IAEE International Conference: Economic, Environmental, Technological and Security Challenges for Energy, Antalya, Turkey, 25-27 May 2015. The International Association for Energy Economics.
Pak, Anton (2023). Evaluation of the pilot program of establishing GP-led Paediatric Minor Injury and Illness Clinic (P-MIIC) in the Queensland Children’s Hospital. Brisbane, QLD, Australia: The University of Queensland.
Essays on applied microeconometrics in health economics
Pak, Anton (2020). Essays on applied microeconometrics in health economics. PhD Thesis, School of Economics, The University of Queensland. doi: 10.14264/uql.2020.209
(2024–2025) CSIRO
(2023–2024) Global Snakebite Initiative USA Foundation
(2023) UQ Health Care Limited
AI to reduce hospital emergency department overcrowding.
Doctor Philosophy — Associate Advisor
Other advisors: