Journal Article: Hurricane simulation and nonstationary extremal analysis for a changing climate
Carney, Meagan, Kantz, Holger and Nicol, Matthew (2022). Hurricane simulation and nonstationary extremal analysis for a changing climate. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 61 (11), 1629-1642. doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0003.1
Journal Article: Extremes and extremal indices for level set observables on hyperbolic systems
Carney, Meagan, Holland, Mark and Nicol, Matthew (2021). Extremes and extremal indices for level set observables on hyperbolic systems. Nonlinearity, 34 (2), 1136-1167. doi: 10.1088/1361-6544/abd85f
Journal Article: Robust regional clustering and modeling of nonstationary summer temperature extremes across Germany
Carney, Meagan and Kantz, Holger (2020). Robust regional clustering and modeling of nonstationary summer temperature extremes across Germany. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 6 (1) ascmo-6-61-2020, 61-77. doi: 10.5194/ascmo-6-61-2020
Journal Article: Nonstationarity of summer temperature extremes in Texas
Carney, Meagan, Azencott, Robert and Nicol, Matthew (2020). Nonstationarity of summer temperature extremes in Texas. International Journal of Climatology, 40 (1), 620-640. doi: 10.1002/joc.6212
Journal Article: Compound Poisson Law for Hitting Times to Periodic Orbits in Two-Dimensional Hyperbolic Systems
Carney, Meagan, Nicol, Matthew and Zhang, Hong-Kun (2017). Compound Poisson Law for Hitting Times to Periodic Orbits in Two-Dimensional Hyperbolic Systems. Journal of Statistical Physics, 169 (4), 804-823. doi: 10.1007/s10955-017-1893-9
Statistical Models of Extreme Weather Events in a Changing Climate
Doctor Philosophy
Global stability of chaotic random dynamical systems
Doctor Philosophy
Random Dynamical Systems, Transfer Operators and Stability
Doctor Philosophy
Statistical Modelling of Extreme Weather Events in a Changing Climate
Extremes in weather, such as tropical storms, wildfires, heatwaves, or large-scale floods can have massive societal and economic impacts from loss of property to loss of life. In this project, we seek answers to return times and magnitudes of extreme weather events in a region. We use a combination of extreme value theory, numerical global circulation models, classification algorithms, and real-world data to mathematically map out weather regions and form regional models of weather extremes. We also consider changes in the probabilities of these events under standard climate cycles and increased CO2 emission thresholds.
Rare Event Analysis and Machine Learning Applications to SARS-CoV-2
This project has many available branches for exploration, utilising both unsupervised and supervised machine learning methods. We combine virology experimental data with cutting-edge statistical methods to answer questions ranging from early detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection to mutation paths and likelihoods.
Hurricane simulation and nonstationary extremal analysis for a changing climate
Carney, Meagan, Kantz, Holger and Nicol, Matthew (2022). Hurricane simulation and nonstationary extremal analysis for a changing climate. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 61 (11), 1629-1642. doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0003.1
Extremes and extremal indices for level set observables on hyperbolic systems
Carney, Meagan, Holland, Mark and Nicol, Matthew (2021). Extremes and extremal indices for level set observables on hyperbolic systems. Nonlinearity, 34 (2), 1136-1167. doi: 10.1088/1361-6544/abd85f
Robust regional clustering and modeling of nonstationary summer temperature extremes across Germany
Carney, Meagan and Kantz, Holger (2020). Robust regional clustering and modeling of nonstationary summer temperature extremes across Germany. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 6 (1) ascmo-6-61-2020, 61-77. doi: 10.5194/ascmo-6-61-2020
Nonstationarity of summer temperature extremes in Texas
Carney, Meagan, Azencott, Robert and Nicol, Matthew (2020). Nonstationarity of summer temperature extremes in Texas. International Journal of Climatology, 40 (1), 620-640. doi: 10.1002/joc.6212
Compound Poisson Law for Hitting Times to Periodic Orbits in Two-Dimensional Hyperbolic Systems
Carney, Meagan, Nicol, Matthew and Zhang, Hong-Kun (2017). Compound Poisson Law for Hitting Times to Periodic Orbits in Two-Dimensional Hyperbolic Systems. Journal of Statistical Physics, 169 (4), 804-823. doi: 10.1007/s10955-017-1893-9
Blood transcriptome responses in patients correlate with severity of COVID-19 disease
Wang, Ya, Schughart, Klaus, Pelaia, Tiana Maria, Chew, Tracy, Kim, Karan, Karvunidis, Thomas, Knippenberg, Ben, Teoh, Sally, Phu, Amy L., Short, Kirsty R., Iredell, Jonathan, Thevarajan, Irani, Audsley, Jennifer, Macdonald, Stephen, Burcham, Jonathon, McLean, Anthony, Tang, Benjamin, Shojaei, Maryam, PREDICT-19 consortium, Kulasinghe, Arutha and Carney, Meagan E. (2023). Blood transcriptome responses in patients correlate with severity of COVID-19 disease. Frontiers in Immunology, 13 1043219, 1-18. doi: 10.3389/fimmu.2022.1043219
Hurricane simulation and nonstationary extremal analysis for a changing climate
Carney, Meagan, Kantz, Holger and Nicol, Matthew (2022). Hurricane simulation and nonstationary extremal analysis for a changing climate. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 61 (11), 1629-1642. doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0003.1
Extremes and extremal indices for level set observables on hyperbolic systems
Carney, Meagan, Holland, Mark and Nicol, Matthew (2021). Extremes and extremal indices for level set observables on hyperbolic systems. Nonlinearity, 34 (2), 1136-1167. doi: 10.1088/1361-6544/abd85f
Robust regional clustering and modeling of nonstationary summer temperature extremes across Germany
Carney, Meagan and Kantz, Holger (2020). Robust regional clustering and modeling of nonstationary summer temperature extremes across Germany. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 6 (1) ascmo-6-61-2020, 61-77. doi: 10.5194/ascmo-6-61-2020
Nonstationarity of summer temperature extremes in Texas
Carney, Meagan, Azencott, Robert and Nicol, Matthew (2020). Nonstationarity of summer temperature extremes in Texas. International Journal of Climatology, 40 (1), 620-640. doi: 10.1002/joc.6212
Compound Poisson Law for Hitting Times to Periodic Orbits in Two-Dimensional Hyperbolic Systems
Carney, Meagan, Nicol, Matthew and Zhang, Hong-Kun (2017). Compound Poisson Law for Hitting Times to Periodic Orbits in Two-Dimensional Hyperbolic Systems. Journal of Statistical Physics, 169 (4), 804-823. doi: 10.1007/s10955-017-1893-9
Carney, Meagan and Nicol, M. (2017). Dynamical Borel-Cantelli lemmas and rates of growth of Birkhoff sums of non-integrable observables on chaotic dynamical systems. Nonlinearity, 30 (7), 2854-2870. doi: 10.1088/1361-6544/aa72c2
Analysis and simulation of extremes and rare events in complex systems
Carney, Meagan, Kantz, Holger and Nicol, Matthew (2020). Analysis and simulation of extremes and rare events in complex systems. Advances in Dynamics, Optimization and Computation SON 2020, Paderborn, Germany, 28 September - 2 October 2020. Cham, Switzerland: Springer. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-51264-4_7
Statistical Models of Extreme Weather Events in a Changing Climate
Doctor Philosophy — Principal Advisor
Other advisors:
Global stability of chaotic random dynamical systems
Doctor Philosophy — Associate Advisor
Other advisors:
Random Dynamical Systems, Transfer Operators and Stability
Doctor Philosophy — Associate Advisor
Other advisors:
Improved diagnostics for respiratory viral infections
Doctor Philosophy — Associate Advisor
Other advisors:
Note for students: The possible research projects listed on this page may not be comprehensive or up to date. Always feel free to contact the staff for more information, and also with your own research ideas.
Statistical Modelling of Extreme Weather Events in a Changing Climate
Extremes in weather, such as tropical storms, wildfires, heatwaves, or large-scale floods can have massive societal and economic impacts from loss of property to loss of life. In this project, we seek answers to return times and magnitudes of extreme weather events in a region. We use a combination of extreme value theory, numerical global circulation models, classification algorithms, and real-world data to mathematically map out weather regions and form regional models of weather extremes. We also consider changes in the probabilities of these events under standard climate cycles and increased CO2 emission thresholds.
Rare Event Analysis and Machine Learning Applications to SARS-CoV-2
This project has many available branches for exploration, utilising both unsupervised and supervised machine learning methods. We combine virology experimental data with cutting-edge statistical methods to answer questions ranging from early detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection to mutation paths and likelihoods.