What predictions can I trust? Stability of chaotic random dynamical systems (2022–2025)
This project aims to make significant progress on the intricate question of global stability of non-autonomous chaotic dynamical systems. Using ergodic theory, this project expects to determine when and how errors in dynamical models that are small and frequent, or large and infrequent, can cause dramatic changes in meaningful mathematical model outputs. Expected outcomes include the discovery of mathematical mechanisms underlying large-scale (in)stability for time-dependent dynamical systems, and reliable numerical methods for detecting instabilities. This research is expected to lead to improved characterisations of shocks or collapse in externally driven dynamical systems and assist scientists to gauge which predictions they can trust.